“Unity is not an option; unity is a duty”

In the 75 years after abolishing the monarchy, Italy has already seen 67 governments with 59 different prime ministers. Moreover, the current legislative session which began in 2018 is already seeing its third cabinet. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that Italians count terms in days rather than years. However, even in a country familiar with such frequent changes in office, the recent developments are unusual.  

What has happened? 

The last election in 2018 ended without a decisive winner and, as a result, the country has been governed by coalitions ever since. Coalition governments as such are not unusual in continental Europe, because of the prevailing proportional representation systems in elections.

For almost three years, two different coalitions were led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, an independent lawyer, who managed the pandemic pretty well and enjoyed general support from the population, with approval rates exceeding 50%. Yet, his time as Prime Minister ended abruptly in January due to personal animosities.  

So, who is his rival? 

Once, he seemed set to become Italy’s reincarnation of Tony Blair. He took office as prime minister at the age of 39, making him not only the youngest PM Italy has ever seen, but also the youngest serving leader of a G7 country at the time. Under his leadership, his party collected in the 2014 European Parliament election a larger share of votes than any other party in Europe. The result came as a huge surprise; after more than 50 years it was the first time in Italy that a single party was supported by more than 40% of the electorate. He used the momentum to implement numerous reforms that surprisingly did not affect his overall popularity; he trended with rates at about 50%. However, after 1,000 days in government his plans to reform the Senate failed to gain approval in a public vote and he subsequently resigned in late 2016. 

The person we are talking about is Matteo Renzi. Despite his resignation, he led his party in the 2018 election, but the PD (Partito Democratico) achieved a dismal result of just 18.7% of the votes. Excluded from power both in government as well as in his own party, he tried to copy Emmanuel Macron, founding a new party, Italia Viva, in 2019 that supported the second Conte cabinet. However, recent polls indicate that his plan might not have worked as he desired, because Italia Viva is polling at just 3%. Nevertheless, because he spun off his party after the last election, it still controls 17 seats in the Senate, which were sufficient to terminate the Conte II cabinet, because of the coalition’s tiny majority of nine seats. 

Mr. Renzi has already faced criticism; for example, he has been accused of acting in a narcissistic manner after founding his own party. But the fact that he acted as kingmaker and single handedly ended the popular Conte II cabinet will probably cost him any remaining sympathies and might mark the end of a promising political career. 

He overturned the government, but at the price of putting the parties of Salvini and Berlusconi back in power, which is barely a success for democracy. 

In the end, some consolation remains for Giuseppe Conte as well. He managed the pandemic without any major controversies and does not leave his job in disgrace. Furthermore, his time in office still puts him in the Top 10 of the longest serving prime ministers of Italy. 

Who are the other major players in Italian politics? 

Following the era of Silvio Berlusconi, who last took office in 2008 aged 71, resigned as prime minister at 75, and is still heading his party Forza Italia ten years later, a lot of hope was projected by the Italian public on Renzi’s generation of politicians. However, this seems to have turned into a deep disappointment. The most popular under 50-year-old politicians in Italy today are Matteo Salvini and Georgia Meloni, who both mark the increasing threat from the right.  

The other shooting star of Italian politics, 34-year-old Luigi Di Maio, recently resigned from his job as party leader of M5S following disappointing election results. He is still a Foreign Minister of the new government, but his future seems less than certain. 

Eventually, this puts the hope of a democratic Italy once more with the old guard, represented by President Sergio Mattarella, who will turn 80 later this year, and the new PM Mario Draghi, who came into office at the age of 73. In fact, the two best agers have managed to put together a functioning executive in record time with a cabinet that consists of technocrats as well as politicians. The involvement of subject matter specialist without political party affiliation has already worked well in the past. PM Conte was the latest example.

In particular, the fact that Mattarella once more avoided a snap election is seen as a big relief. The official reason he gave was the coronavirus pandemic, but there is little doubt that his true intent was to avoid a landslide victory of the right-wing parties who have done exceptionally well in recent polls. And with a new president up for election by the two chambers in January 2022 it is seen as a better idea to do so before the next election. 

Under different circumstances a cabinet with such multi-party support like the one led by Mr. Draghi would have been virtually impossible to assemble, but the willingness to compromise was substantially fueled by the fact that about a third of the members of Parliament are going to lose their seats in the next election due to electoral reform. This was apparently a strong disincentive against a snap election. 

What's next, then?

The new, big coalition government led by Draghi includes several questionable players such as the parties of Berlusconi and Salvini. Now that a participation in government puts them into the game for the allocation of the vast EU subsidies, their Europhobe attitude seems to have evaporated. 

Nevertheless, this is seen as preferable to a government that must rely on support by the Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) party. These brothers of Italy are ironically led by a 44-year-old woman, Georgia Meloni, and regarded by many as a party in the tradition of Benito Mussolini’s fascist movement, with the respective alt right tendencies. 

As far as Mario Draghi is concerned, the former president of the European Central Bank faces substantial tasks. He needs to address the fundamental problems Italy struggled with regardless of the pandemic by reforming the country and he must allocate the EU subsidies, which could exceed 200 billion €. Time available for achieving these targets is extremely limited.

For the EU funds a concrete plan must be presented to the EU commission by April and they need to be distributed before the end of 2021. It is expected that this will happen based on the comfortable majority the grand coalition enjoys.

But any reforms need to be implemented before the next regular election, which must be held before June 2023. This will command all of Mr. Draghi’s authority as well as the best of his negotiation skills, because of the huge political differences between the coalition partners, who range from the far right to the left. Furthermore, the parties will be reluctant to make any concessions that might prove unpopular with their particular electorate ahead of the election in fear that they lose votes to those parties who remain in opposition. This, especially, should be a concern for Mr. Salvini, who risks continuing to lose votes to the FdI.

Taking this into account, Italian politics are unlikely to show the dynamics that are probably needed to tackle the many problems successfully. On the other hand, the right wing parties led by Berlusconi, Salvini and Meloni are expected to gain further seats in the forthcoming election. Therefore, the current situation seems the best compromise available for those who advocate a liberal and democratic Italy.

In the meantime, we should not expect Super Mario to do wonders in terms of reforming the state during his first cabinet. However, the forthcoming election might once more fail to provide simple majorities and hence nobody familiar with Italian politics would be surprised to see further cabinets that carry his name. This leaves the Italian people with the bitter sweet taste that their political hopes continue resting on someone who is way past his retirement age. This means that in the mid-term without any young blood in sight, politics in Italy are likely to remain a pandora’s box. But maybe we will see a new star rising like a phoenix from the ashes of Matteo Renzi as well. Italy is always good for a surprise as well.