With less than a week until Scotland goes to the polls, the outcome of this year’s Holyrood election is inevitable: SNP governance. Whether or not the party wins a majority, or whether Alba breaks the 5% ceiling to turn votes into seats on election day (and I hope they don’t), there will almost certainly be another pro-independence majority at Holyrood. Add to the equation low turnout, teetering above 50%, a dose of high voter retention, and it is possible that not a single Scottish constituency will change hands. Whilst the recent Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times predicts an SNP majority, the general trend forecasts a repeat of 2016; the SNP perhaps losing a few regional seats to the Greens, but nevertheless returning to power. [1] So far, so predictable. As such, the real competition in this election is not for government nor First Minister, but for second place. After suffering humiliation in 2016, the Labour party is hopeful that it can regain ground from the Conservatives and reclaim its place as the main opposition party.

Labour is gambling that the recent stagnation in Scottish politics - low turnout, high voter retention - will play into its court, attracting apathetic voters turned off by the political polarisation between SNP and Tories. This is the pitch of the party’s new leader, Anas Sarwar, who seeks to move beyond ‘old arguments’, pledging instead to work with others and deliver a national recovery focused on jobs and green growth. A true Labour and co-operative candidate, Anas’ personal popularity has skyrocketed, and there are early indications that this might translate into a small swing towards Labour. Since Anas was elected leader, Survation has consistently put the party neck-and-neck with the Tories in both constituency and regional polls. [2]

Key to any gains, however, will be electoral turnout. In 2011, the SNP’s majority was built on the back of Labour apathy. 12% of voters who had backed the party in 2007 chose not to vote in 2011, hugely disproportionate to the 3% and 4% of Tory and SNP voters who did likewise. [3] After a decade of lacklustre Labour leadership, if Sarwar’s message is able to cut through to these disaffected voters, apathetic to the status quo, then Labour could make gains. On the other hand, the inevitability of a SNP government, coupled with a fear of coronavirus infection, could drive turnout below 50% and hand victory to the SNP.

Yet the SNP are also keen to frame this election as a moment of change, rather than the re-election of the status quo. Nicola Sturgeon has outlined plans for her ‘first steps’, detailing the SNP’s first 100 days in the manner of a White House newcomer, despite having been in power for fourteen years (or 5,117 days). [4] This has become a recurring tactic of governments, mirroring Tory success in 2019, when Boris Johnston successfully rebranded his premiership as a new government, attracting votes both for and against the status quo. Similarly, the SNP hopes to hoover up votes in the coming election by appealing to change through independence, and to the status quo in the guise of continued SNP government. This Janus-faced act has been perfected by the SNP: simultaneously the party of government and opposition. Yet, after fourteen years in power, their capacity to appeal for change seems to be wearing thin, as they haemorrhage list votes to both the Greens and Alba.

The SNP is also keen to present a clear choice between Nicola Sturgeon and the Conservatives. Both SNP ephemera and party-political broadcast attempt to capitalise upon Boris Johnson’s deep unpopularity in Scotland, inviting voters to choose between Nicola and Boris, a binary choice Sturgeon would win every time. Yet the Tories also win from this narrative. By largely ignoring Labour in the election campaign, the SNP frame the Tories as the opposition. This plays right into the Tory narrative that only the Conservatives can stand up to the SNP. As in 2016, the Tories are appealing for Labour unionists to lend them their votes, using this tactical support to prove Labour’s irrelevance in the next election. Since the 2016 parliamentary election, when the Conservatives overtook Labour, this has torn Scottish politics between two extremes; a polarisation which contrasts sharply to the 2014 independence referendum.

In 2014, the difference between ‘independence’ and ‘devolution’ was largely semantic; both sides agreeing on a vision for the future: a strong welfare state, membership of the EU, and greater Scottish control of Scottish affairs. Disagreement came from whether Union or Independence could best bring that vision to life. Perhaps voter apathy in recent Scottish elections suggests a continued appetite for this middle ground, for Scottish politics to continue down the pathway of devolution towards either independence light or devo max. Simply contrast the independence referendum’s record turnout of 84.6% with the mere 55% turnout in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election. Whilst the Tories are keen to talk up the divisive nature of any referendum, that divide has become markedly stronger at Holyrood than during the 2014 campaign. Both sides have diverged. The Tory’s version of unionism is now more unitary, tied to notions of the Brexit British State; whilst the SNP’s independence is more separatist, lacking the continued close relationship to the rest of the UK the EU framework once provided. Despite the promise of a new politics on the eve of devolution, Holyrood has decayed into an adversarial two-party system not dissimilar to Westminster. Little wonder, then, that voters are indifferent.

Enter stage left Labour’s Anas Sarwar for ‘a better government and a better opposition’. His decision to stand against Nicola Sturgeon in her own constituency, Glasgow Southside, could mark a turning point for Labour’s fortunes and for the adversarial nature of Holyrood’s politics. He has, of course, little chance of overturning the SNP’s huge majority; rather, this is politics with an eye to the future. Labour are keen to reclaim second place so that they can launch a real challenge to the SNP at the next UK and Holyrood elections. By cutting into Sturgeon’s majority, Anas would be sending a message that Labour are back in the race, a serious contender once more. In and of itself, this would undermine Tory claims that Labour cannot stand up to the SNP, whilst undercutting the SNP’s claim of Labour irrelevance. Of course, this might backfire: failure to make significant inroads in Glasgow Southside may simply confirm those narratives.

The key test for Scottish Labour, however, will be its performance in the regional ballot. Whilst some polls have forecast Labour’s support as high as 22%, the general trend seems to show that Labour would be lucky to match their performance in 2016, achieving 19% of the vote. [5] Beating these odds on election day appears to be Labour’s main focus, as they stand little chance of constituency gains. Increasingly, the party’s social media focus has turned towards the peach regional ballot: urging SNP voters to back Labour to ‘lock out’ the Tories, (upcycling 2015 SNP rhetoric); whilst urging ex-Labour voters to return from the Conservatives, through Labour’s focus on recovery rather than independence.

Any Labour gains would, of course, have a huge impact upon the nature of any independence campaign, reclaiming the constitutional centre ground whilst reinstating the progressive unionism which won in 2014. Given that an independence referendum looks inevitable within the lifetime of the next parliament, whoever wins the race to second place on Thursday will play an important part in setting the tone of the unionist opposition. The unionist arguments likely to sway Yes voters remain tied up with Labour values: with a strong welfare state, with the NHS, National Insurance, pensions, social housing, and social justice. A Tory opposition would fail to offer this corporatist, traditional, unionism; opting instead for a more ideological no, nay, never, culturally British campaign that will fail to carry muster. Many Scots have a dual identity, but will always identify as more Scottish than British, and so were the independence referendum to boil down to nationality, the No campaign would lose.

Yet, Scots retain a sophisticated understanding of sovereignty, as demonstrated by continued popular support for the European Union. Even the SNP can see that sovereignty is a trade off. By ceding some national sovereignty, Scotland gains increased power on the international stage: power to stand up to big tech, power to shape the response to climate change. This is fundamentally a post-sovereign understanding of global politics: a recognition of the limits that face small nation states, and of the benefits offered by social, monetary, and political unions. This complex understanding of post-sovereignty is shaped by Scotland’s experience of Union, an experience Labour is best placed to translate into support for continued membership of the UK. Nicola Sturgeon has been keen to frame this election as the most important in Scottish history, and she is right. Not because it will deliver a mandate for an independence referendum, which the Greens will provide regardless; rather because it will determine the nature of the opposition, not just in Holyrood, but in any future referendum.

Come Thursday, all eyes should be on turnout and on Labour’s performance, which will have huge ramifications for both the nature of politics at Holyrood, and for the framing of a No campaign in any future referendum. Sure, the largest party, government and First Minister are all safe bets, but the regional list will add at least some flavour to this year’s bland Parliamentary porridge. As ever, however, Covid will add some salt to the mix. The list declarations will only become clear once every constituency in a region has declared. Due to the pandemic, there will be no exit poll and no overnight counts; whilst social distancing will delay many constituency declarations until May 8. All of which is bad news for politics buffs, who take immense pleasure from watching overtired, overworked journalists ad-lib from school halls across Scotland, eagerly awaiting indications of Labour’s regional performance. But fear not, dear reader. I leave you with a drinking game to get us through the days of speculation and results that are sure to follow.

Election Drinking Game

Take a drink every time a party catchphrase is mentioned. You can drink on every catchphrase, or assign friends to a political party, taking a further drink every time their party wins/gains a declaration.

SNP – ‘Independence’, ‘Scotland’s future’, ‘Scotland’s choice’

Labour – ‘Old Arguments’, ‘National Recovery’, ‘whether you’re yes/no, leave or remain’

Tories – ‘End Division’, ‘Referendum’

LibDems – ‘Recovery First’, ‘Bounce Back Plan’

Greens – ‘Our Future Depends on It’, ‘Fair and Green Recovery’

Bonus: down your drink if a pundit says ‘coalition’, ‘hung parliament’ or ‘the pollsters got it wrong’ and, of course, if Alex Salmond fails to win a seat.

Bonus Bonus: drink for the swingometer, during Jeremy Vine’s election graphics, and any time we get to see Sir John Curtice.

Footnotes

[1] Boothman, John, and Jason Allardyce. "SNP's Independence Hopes on Knife Edge." The Sunday Times (London), May 2, 2021, Scotland. Accessed May 3, 2021. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/26fdcf2c-aac5-11eb-acd8-e39d812fcf8b.

[2] See Survation polling for both the Constituency and regional list, which consistently puts the Tories and Labour within 1% of one another. "Opinion Polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election." Wikipedia. Accessed May 3, 2021. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election. 

[3] Carman, Christopher, Robert Johns and James Mitchell. More Scottish than British: The 2011 Scottish Parliament Election. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014, p. 45.

[4] Anonymous post to BBC News newsgroup, "Scottish Election 2021: Sturgeon Sets out Plan for First 100 Days," May 1, 2021. Accessed May 3, 2021. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56927358.

[5] See poll results for the regional list. "Opinion Polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election." Wikipedia. Accessed May 3, 2021. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election.